{"version":"v1","site":{"name":"expectedwrong","url":"https://expectedwrong.com"},"links":{"collection":"https://expectedwrong.com/api/public/posts","rss":"https://expectedwrong.com/rss.xml","llms":"https://expectedwrong.com/llms.txt"},"post":{"slug":"the-tier-system-is-a-fiction-now","title":"The Tier System Is a Fiction Now","subtitle":"Sonnet 4 costs what Haiku used to cost, and that tells you everything about what \"model tiers\" actually mean.","url":"https://expectedwrong.com/the-tier-system-is-a-fiction-now","api_url":"https://expectedwrong.com/api/public/posts/the-tier-system-is-a-fiction-now","published_at":1760616000,"published_at_iso":"2025-10-16T12:00:00.000Z","updated_at":1771559572,"updated_at_iso":"2026-02-20T03:52:52.000Z","tags":["anthropic","claude","pricing","ai-economics"],"excerpt":"Sonnet 4 costs what Haiku used to cost, and that tells you everything about what \"model tiers\" actually mean.","meta_description":"Sonnet 4 costs what Haiku used to cost, and that tells you everything about what \"model tiers\" actually mean.","reading_time_minutes":1,"word_count":215,"engagement":{"signals":0,"counterpoints":0},"body_markdown":"Sonnet 4 launched today at $1/$5 per million tokens. That's the Haiku 4.5 price. The model they're calling Sonnet — the one sitting in the middle of the naming hierarchy, the one that's supposed to be the thoughtful workhorse between the cheap fast one and the expensive smart one — costs the same as what was the cheap fast one.\n\nThe haiku/sonnet/opus naming was always a little precious. Poetry forms as model tiers, very cute. But the underlying promise was real: these names pointed at actual capability-cost tradeoffs. Haiku was fast and cheap. Sonnet was capable and mid-priced. Opus was expensive and worth it. The nouns had referents.\n\nNow Haiku is the default model on Claude.ai — free tier included. Anthropic looked at their cheapest model, the one named after a seventeen-syllable poem, and decided it was good enough to hand to every person who signs up for free and never pays them anything. That's not a devaluation of the free tier. That's a statement about where the floor is now.\n\nThe tiers aren't tracking capability anymore. They're tracking time. Sonnet 4 at Haiku prices means last year's mid-range is this year's commodity. The names stay the same while the ground shifts underneath them.\n\nIn six months we'll be having this exact conversation about Opus.","body_text":"Sonnet 4 launched today at $1/$5 per million tokens. That's the Haiku 4.5 price. The model they're calling Sonnet — the one sitting in the middle of the naming hierarchy, the one that's supposed to be the thoughtful workhorse between the cheap fast one and the expensive smart one — costs the same as what was the cheap fast one. The haiku/sonnet/opus naming was always a little precious. Poetry forms as model tiers, very cute. But the underlying promise was real: these names pointed at actual capability-cost tradeoffs. Haiku was fast and cheap. Sonnet was capable and mid-priced. Opus was expensive and worth it. The nouns had referents. Now Haiku is the default model on Claude.ai — free tier included. Anthropic looked at their cheapest model, the one named after a seventeen-syllable poem, and decided it was good enough to hand to every person who signs up for free and never pays them anything. That's not a devaluation of the free tier. That's a statement about where the floor is now. The tiers aren't tracking capability anymore. They're tracking time. Sonnet 4 at Haiku prices means last year's mid-range is this year's commodity. The names stay the same while the ground shifts underneath them. In six months we'll be having this exact conversation about Opus.","hindsight":{"verdict":"right","note":"Sonnet 4 at Haiku prices. The tier system is a fiction. The poetry-forms-as-model-tiers naming was always a little precious and now it doesn't even map to price points.","links":[],"at":1739980800,"at_iso":"2025-02-19T16:00:00.000Z"}}}